[an error occurred while processing this directive] 大紀元
An imbecilic dictator whose daughter is in America, whose brother and sisters are naturalized citizens of Australia and Canada; an imbecilic dictator who forgets monster Mao tse-tung persecuted his father; and an imbecilic dictator who wants to live to 150 years old, serve the people and rip their body parts (中共全國文聯原黨組書記、副主席、原文化部副部長高占祥 (?-2022年12月9日)在北京病逝,終年87歲。中共全國政協常委、中國民主促進會中央委員會副主席朱永新,在12月11日的悼文中說,高占祥「身上的臟器換了好多,他戲稱許多零件都不是自己的了。」) For twenty years, this webmaster had been telling the world that Alan Greenspan, possibly the smartest American but bedazzled by the "conundrum" of long term interest rates, does not know that this webmaster's countryside cousins, mostly women, had been going to Guam, Samoa and other Pacific islands for a decade as the export of labor: what is coming to the U.S. market is merely a tag stating something not "made-in-China" but made-by-the-Chinese in nature. The smartest American turned out to be Professor Peter Navarro, and it might not be some coincidence that his books "The Coming China Wars" and "Death by China" are similar to what this website wrote about for the last 20 years. Anthony Fauci of CDC & Peter Daszak of EcoHealth were the enablers who funded Communist China's gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses at China's Wuhan lab What this webmaster does not know is that the Chinese were going to Italy as well, where they worked as coolies and slaves for the "Made in Italy [by Chinese]" brands, and spread the coronavirus in Italy today. What a farce Communist China gave the world, and what a disaster Communist China caused to the world! Don't forget that France (Alain Merieux of bioMerieux - sarcastically-related to Moderna, the other side of a coin) and the United States (Anthony Fauci of CDC & Peter Daszak of EcoHealth) acted as the 'enablers' in designing and constructing the P4 virus research center in Wuhan, as well as in providing the funds. And don't forget what happened today was because the Americans served as the midwife who delivered China into the communist hands as i) Roosevelt, in collusion with Churchill and Stalin, sold out China at Tehran and Yalta; and ii) George Marshall forced three truces [Jan-10-1946, June-6-1946, & Nov-8-1946] onto the Republic of China and further imposed the 1946-47[48] arms embargo while the commies were equipped by the Stalin-supplied American August Storm weapons and augmented by the mercenaries including the Mongol cavalry, the Japanese 8th Route Army troops, the Soviet railway army corps, and the 250,000-strong [Kwantung Army-converted] Korean diehards. (Refer to "The Italian fashion capital being led by the Chinese"; "Coronavirus Hits Heart of Italy's Famous Cheese, Wine, Fashion Makers" for further reading. Military Documents About Gain of Function Contradict Fauci Testimony Under Oath: EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in March 2018 seeking funding to conduct gain of function research of bat borne coronaviruses... According to the documents, NAIAD, under the direction of Dr. Fauci, went ahead with the research in Wuhan, China and at several sites across the U.S.)
For better understanding the head-on collision between the United States and Communuist China, refer to the U.S.-China fatalistic conjunction through the hands of the Japanese firepower during WWII, that derived from the American unpositive neutrality; the U.S.-China fatalistic conjunction through the hands of communist army's firepower during the 1945-1950 civil war, that derived from American-supplied Soviet August Storm weapons; and the U.S.-China fatalistic conjunction through Joseph Stalin, Kim Il Sung and Mao Tse-ting's hands during the 1950-1953 Korean War.
President Trump's defeat by the deep state of America (i.e., COVID-premised subversion of American democracy by the abuse of paper ballots' casting) is Communist China's win and the Chinese people's loss. Note that President Trump is the greatest U.S. president after President Lincoln whose Republican Party was called the Mongrel Party by the Democrats for sympathy with the mongrels, i.e., Black slaves and Chinese coolies. Sons and daughters of China, till cutting off the communist pigtails on your heads, don't let up, take heart of grace, and heed the sons & ministers' agony and sorrow of our ancestors who died or lived through the Mongol, Manchu and Soviet-Chicom conquest and the Yongjia, Jingkang and Jiashen cataclysms ! As President Trump said: Never, Ever Give Up !
An imbecilic dictator leading China on a path of destruction ! An imbecilic dictator leading China on a path of destruction ! An imbecilic dictator leading China on a path of destruction ! An imbecilic dictator leading China on a path of destruction ! An imbecilic dictator leading China on a path of destruction !
Donald Trump reveals he called Xi Jinping 'king'; Dreams of a Red Emperor: The relentless rise of Xi Jinping; Emperor Xi Meets Donald Trump Thought; Trump Praises Xi as China's `President for Life' -- an imbecil leading China on a path of destruction !
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*** Related Readings ***:
The Amerasia Case & Cover-up By the U.S. Government
The Legend of Mark Gayn
The Reality of Red Subversion: The Recent Confirmation of Soviet Espionage in America
Notes on Owen Lattimore
Lauchlin Currie / Biography
Nathan Silvermaster Group of 28 American communists in 6 Federal agencies
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Chiang Kai-shek's Money Trail
The Wuhan Gang, including Joseph Stilwell, Agnes Smedley, Evans Carlson, Frank Dorn, Jack Belden, S.T. Steele, John Davies, David Barrett and more, were the core of the Americans who were to influence the American decision-making on behalf of the Chinese communists. 
It was not something that could be easily explained by Hurley's accusation in late 1945 that American government had been hijacked by 
i) the imperialists (i.e., the British colonialists whom Roosevelt always suspected to have hijacked the U.S. State Department)  
and ii) the communists.  At play was not a single-thread Russian or Comintern conspiracy against the Republic of China but an additional channel 
that was delicately knit by the sophisticated Chinese communist saboteurs to employ the above-mentioned Americans for their cause The Wuhan Gang & The Chungking Gang, i.e., the offsprings of the American missionaries, diplomats, military officers, 'revolutionaries' & Red Saboteurs and the "Old China Hands" of the 1920s and the herald-runners of the Dixie Mission of the 1940s.
Wang Bingnan's German wife, Anneliese Martens, physically won over the hearts of the Americans by providing the wartime 'bachelors' with special one-on-one service per Zeng Xubai's writings.  Though, Anna Wang [Anneliese Martens], in her memoirs, expressed jealousy over Gong Peng by stating that the Anglo-American reporters had flattered the Chinese communists and the communist movement as a result of being entranced with the goldfish-eye'ed personal assistant of Zhou Enlai
Stephen R. Mackinnon & John Fairbank invariably failed to separate fondness for the Chinese communist revolution from fondness for Gong Peng, the communist fetish who worked together with Anneliese Martens to infatuate the American wartime reporters. (More, refer to the Communist Platonic Club at wartime capital Chungking and The American Involvement in China: the Soviet Operation Snow, the IPR Conspiracy, the Dixie Mission, the Stilwell Incident, the OSS Scheme, the Coalition Government Crap, the Amerasia Case, & The China White Paper.)
 
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    趙立剛:中國農民會不會被拋棄?

    作者﹕趙立剛


    (http://www.epochtimes.com)
    【大紀元11月18日訊】導言

    “農民會不會被拋棄”這個問題的提出,決不是危言聳聽,而是需要我們認真對待的實實在在的問題。如果農民被拋棄了,那麼等待我們的是什麼呢?我想不會是歌舞升平吧。該是研究這一問題的時候了。

    首先對“被拋棄”的含義做一解釋。1.它是一種心理感受,即被排斥感。2.它是一種存在狀態,表現為地位低下,處於現代化發展的邊緣,即邊緣化。3.它是相對於特定的對立面的,具體到我們要討論的問題就是農民相對於城市居民而言,在收入、知識、待遇、福利等方面,二者的差距過大。其本質是發展能力和發展機會的弱化或喪失,發展空間的狹窄。

    其次,我們認為在現代化 和市場經濟的雙重背景下,農民的發展能力由以下幾種能力構成:1.資本積累能力2.知識獲取能力3.權能信息獲取能力;其中資本積累能力是最根本的發展能力。農民的發展機會,(這裡我們主要是指爭取平等的國民待遇的實現),主要取決於制度堡壘的打破和農民集體動員能力的大小。農民的發展空間,主要是指在人多地少的國情制約下的出路究竟有多大。

    第三,我們的一個基本判斷是:我國的農民,尤其是廣大的中西部地區的農民已經被拋棄,或有極大的可能被拋棄,從而成為我國現代化發展的沉重的尾巴。這也是“三農”問題為什麼引起關注的重要原因之一。

    在本文中,我們主要從發展的角度,往前看來研究農民的發展問題,當然對現狀的描述也是必要的。在下面的分析中,我們講按照發展能力、發展機會和發展空間的順序來展開論述,其中重點分析了資本、知識、教育、政治權力、集團動員等因素,但同時這些方面和因素又是相互影響、緊密聯繫在一起的。

    ■ 資本積累能力

    資本積累能力是最根本和最具有決定意義的能力。農民的資本積累能力取決於農業剩餘和外喲入。而農業剩餘=農民收入─農民負擔;外喲入主要有國家財政支農和貸款。所以我們將從4個方面來衡量和分析農民的資本積累能力。這4個方面是:1.收入能力2.減負能力3.融資能力4.國家財政支農。

    1.收入能力

    先審視一下農民收入的現狀。主要看收入增幅和城鄉收入差距兩方面。根據一些學者的研究,發現:ぇ.近年(九十年代中後期)以來農民收入增幅連年下降[1],“一些地區甚至出現了負增長, 1998年收入為0的農戶比例為16%,而1999年這個數字更進一步擴大,收入為0和負增長的農戶數量居然達到了百分之四十五點多”[2];一些地區返貧現象嚴重。え.城鄉收入差距不斷擴大。據世界銀行的修正值,1995年城鄉收入比為4︰1,到2001年3月為5︰1左右[3]。現狀如此,客觀存在了的。我們的著眼點放在農民今後的收入能力上。

    有一點是我們必須正視的,就是人多地少的基本國情。在這個基本國情的制約下,農民無論“向內”,即在家務農,還是“向外”,即外出打工,發展的空間都是很狹窄的。如果小農經濟,即一家一戶耕種一小塊土地,還繼續存在的話,再怎麼挖潛都將是徒勞的。正如許多的學者提議的那樣,可行的出路在於農村剩餘勞動力向非農領域轉移。按照是否轉移(遷徙),我們將農民分為在家務農的和外出打工的兩部分。

    對於前者,即在家務農的農民,他們收入的途徑主要有:ぇ 規模經營;え 農業產業、產品結構調整;ぉ 融入“公司+農戶”的所謂農業產業化之中;お 農業技術創新;か 農產品價格上升。對於ぇ,理論上雖然講得通,但仍需要兩個條件得支持:一是農村剩餘勞動力向外轉移得力度要充分大;二是土地私有或是說農地有償轉讓制度的形成。這兩個條件只在少數地區,如江浙一帶,有條件具備;其它的地區還差的遠。對於え,有一定的潛力是不可否認的,但是並非說要調整就能調整的,比如一些地區只適合種植某種作物,如果硬要種另外一種不適合當地氣候條件的作物,無易於自討苦吃。對於ぉ,盡管在一些地方農業產業化搞的好,但這並不具有普遍意義。所謂的農業產業化實質上就是工商業資本投入到農業領域,在市場條件下,資本所有者是追求利潤最大化的,他不可能盲目“搞派對”將資本投入到沒有效益的地方去的。不適合農業產業化的地方,他是不會關心的,而適合的地方又不多。對於お,面對廣大分散的農戶,如何推廣是一個難題。我們不是沒有好的農業技術,而是難於推廣。再說,技術轉讓是要支付成本的,且不論單個農戶能不能付的起這筆費用,有沒有必要都成問題。只要勞動力有剩餘,有轉移不出去,何必用技術替代勞動?對於か,由於我國要加入WTO ,農產品,尤其是一些常見的,如玉米、小麥、大豆、棉花等價格上升的空間幾乎為零。對於上述5點,我們都並不以很樂觀的態度來看待,並不是說農村的人就不能致富了,農村就不前進了。我們只是強調一點:他們收入的能力在現有的環境制約下,是十分有限的。

    對於後者,收入途徑只有打工一條,即工資收入。然而,這條路又是何等的崎嶇。首先,戶籍制度的障礙。這一點將在後面“制度歧視”的討論中詳述。其次,行業進入壁壘,這裡主要指的是學歷或是說知識壁壘。我國農民的整體素質差,文化水平低,這是事實。即使是戶籍制度取消了,廣大的農民工也只能從事一些服務業、建築業、小商業。因為你知識積累不夠,進不了報酬高的行業和部門。而在上述的那些領域內,又會由於人多(加之城市下崗工人),必然使勞動力的價格被壓低。突破知識壁壘取決於農民的知識獲取能力。而這種能力又是多麼的有限(後述)。

    2.減負能力

    農民的負擔現在是非常重的,大家都清楚,我們不打算在這裡贅述。我們將用舉例子的方式來表述我們的觀點。一個典型例子就是農民負擔越減越重的政策失敗怪圈。這裡我們不討論農民究竟被拿去多少錢。大量的事實已經證明:農民快被那些負擔壓死了!問題在於造成這個怪圈後面的原因。在後面的關於權能信息流通結構的討論中,會發現我國的政治體制是其中的一個重要原因。另外的原因主要有:農民知識的匱乏、基層政權和地方惡勢力的相互勾結以及愈演愈烈的腐敗。不改變這些作為原因的現狀,農民負擔就不可能減下來。而改變現狀又是多麼的艱難!有學者指出:我們已經喪失了保護農民利益、促進農業發展的政策優勢[4]。中央對地方是一種軟約束,到了鄉鎮一級政府,更是天高皇帝遠。官黑勾結,魚肉百姓的事層出不窮,不能不令我們擔憂。

    3.融資的能力

    市場條件下資本是趨於收益高的領域流動的。我國的農村金融組織,如“農村基金會”、“信用合作社”面向農民的金融服務呈收縮趨勢。農民的存款紛紛向城市集中,而同時農民卻告貸無門,就是傳統的生產和生活小額借貸,也與農民無緣。資本是嫌貧愛富的。由於農業生產的低效益,甚至負效益;再加上面對的是高度分散、高風險的小農,資本是不會進入農民手中的。但農民有時又必須借款,不得以只好求助於高利貸了。很顯然,一方面借不到款;一方面又受高利貸盤剝。農民通過正常渠道融資的能力幾乎為零。如果僅僅靠農業剩餘,一個農民的原始資本積累什麼時候才能完成?

    4.國家財政支農

    根據有關資料知,90年代國家財政支農的比重一直呈下降趨勢。1991-1997年分別為10.3%,10.0%,9.5%,9.2%,8.4%,8.8%和8.3%;而同時期來源於農業的稅收卻大幅度增長[7]。一降一升,財政支農並沒有帶給農民多少改善經濟狀況的機會。即使國家加強對農業的投入又如何呢?面對“高度分散的2億多農戶到底應該投給誰,怎麼投才能到那些真正需要的戶?事實上這些年政府增加投入的結果是,投入大多數下達到有關部門,轉變為部門收益和鄉村基層負債的增加。”[8]

    ■ 知識貧困和教育的不平等

    “知識”無疑已經成為一種重要的生產要素。在中國追趕工業化,必須超越工業化而迎接信息化、知識經濟來臨的背景下,知識愈顯重要。那麼,農民尤其是他們的子女的知識狀況以及在獲取知識的能力和途徑又如何呢?

    胡鞍鋼的研究表明:我國的知識貧困狀況存在著嚴重的城鄉差異,農村地區的知識貧困狀況比城市嚴重的多;存在著嚴重的地區差異,西部地區和少數民族地區是知識貧困狀況的重災區[9]。也就是說,農民,尤其是廣大的中西部地區欠發達地區的農民處於嚴重的知識貧乏狀態。這是現狀。那麼他們改變這種狀況的能力有多大呢?與前面的分類相同,我們將農民分為在家務農的和外出打工的兩類。分別進行分析。

    在家務農的大多知識文化水平低。寄希望於他們身上並無多大意義。他們只能一輩子呆在農村,自生自滅了。(當然我們並部否認少數又文化的農民的存在,但佔主體的是文盲)我們目光轉向農民子弟。他們接受知識的最主要的途徑就是接受學校教育。首先看義務教育。狀況並不樂觀:1由於學雜費高,學校亂收費,很多學生讀完小學就輟學。讀不起書的現象比比皆是。這裡值得一提的是“普九”檢查。很多地方的學校都是臨時雇人當“學生”,一天給這些“學生”多少錢[10]。所以,盡管表面上“普九”達標;其實學生流失何其嚴重! 2 城鄉二元教育體製造成城鄉教育的嚴重不平等。1986年9月11日頒發的《關於實施〈義務教育法〉若干問題的意見》,其中第22條意見規定:"城鎮,凡國家舉辦的中小學新建、擴建、改建校舍所需的投資,按學校隸屬關係,列入主管部門基本建設投資計劃,並予以照顧。農村中小學校舍建設投資,以鄉、村自籌為主。地方人民政府對經濟有困難的地方,酌情予以補助。"也就是說,城鎮中小學屬於由國家舉辦的學校,由國家和地方財政撥款建設,農村中小學則是農民自己的學校,由農民自籌資金興辦。制度設置造成的教育的起點的不公平是最大的不平等。當一個農民的子弟還不知道電腦是什麼時,城市的孩子已經在學習電腦了。無論從校舍等基礎設施的建設,還是師資的配備來說,農村的教育和城市的相差至少在一倍以上[11]。

    其次看高等教育。且不論高校招生上巨大的城鄉差別[12],即使一個農家孩子考上了大學,能否供得起就是一個大問題。自從1997年高校收費並軌以來,學費連年上漲。一個一般的農村家庭根本供不起一個大學生。我們採用2000年國家統計局公布的數據(並作一定的計算)來說明。1999年全國農村居民家庭平均每人純收入為2210元,則人均可支配生活消費現金(用於2000年)=2200元-除農業稅以外的負擔200元[13]-生產性指出660元(2200×30%[14])-自留口糧折合200元[15]=1150元。一個農民家庭(假設三口)可支配收入就是3450元。2000年的高校學雜費一般都在3000-4500元之間,住宿費在500-1200元之間,一些藝術類學校更高。對比即可得結論:一個一般得農民家庭即使拿出所有3450元也供不起一個大學生一年的學雜費。進一步分析各個省份的每人純收入我們又發現:每人純收入在1500以下的省有7個,1500-2000元的有5個,2000-3000元的有12個。而這些省份的農民人口卻佔總農民人口的77%左右,居住在鄉村的人口佔總人口的63.91%(第五次人口普查),那麼這些省份的農民人口佔全國約是49%。這說明全國有一半的人上不起大學。另據徐斐以1999年底農村居民儲蓄額測算(1999年底農村居民儲蓄額約為1.4萬億,平均每位農民的儲蓄僅為1500元,三口之家4500元[16]),得出了和我們同樣的結論。農民不增收,而學費卻連年上漲;一個農家孩子即使考上了大學,家長也只能"望學興嘆"!

    外出打工者以青壯年農民為主。他們中的許多人頭腦靈活,接受新鮮事物快,不乏從打工仔(妹)成長為出色的人才。他們的發展主要靠的是“素質”,包括知識、社會經驗、勤勞耐苦品質等在內的綜合體。他們不僅僅為了生存,同時也是為了發展。考慮他們的受教育狀況,主要是從制度層面來進行的。因為接受學校教育的可能性很小。主要受教育的途徑於是只有“向社會學習”。但現存的戶籍制度限制了他們學習先進東西的機會。在後面詳述。那麼他們的子女,即所謂的“第二代移民”的受教育機會有多大呢?呂紹青等人的調查顯示了城鄉差別下的流動兒童的受教育情況[17]:1教育嚴重匱乏。ぇ適齡兒童入學率低,不能在可接受教育的年限及時入學;え孩子隨家長四處流動,其中許多人有過輟學的經歷;ぉ流動子女失學情況普遍。2基礎教育的邊緣化。引用作者的原話:“流動兒童基礎教育被排斥在城市和鄉村的教育體制之外,而被迫以體制外的自發的市場化方式來解決,而市場化的教育提供和有效需求都處於嚴重匱乏的狀態。造成流動兒童教育權利的缺乏。”這裡特別提一下教育壟斷。他們的孩子入收費低的私人學校,這些學校往往遭到當地教育部門的“槍斃”;入公立學校則要交納上萬元的“借讀費”和“贊助費”。可謂入公入私俱難矣!從兩方面我們都可以看到:農民及其子女在接受教育上是處於非常不平等的地位,面對農民的教育資源是相當貧乏的。

    ■ 權能信息獲取能力

    先讓我們看一個例子。江西《農村發展論叢》雜誌社印製了一本增刊,該增刊搜集了各種中央有關農業政策的紅頭文件,讓農民據此掌握哪些屬於中央規定要徵收的稅費,哪些屬於亂收費,名之為《減輕農民負擔工作手冊》,結果該增刊卻被當地政府當作印刷“反動刊物”,該雜誌主編只得流浪在外四處躲藏。這個例子反映了什麼問題?說明瞭農民知情權的被剝奪,反映了農民獲取權能信息能力的缺失。

    權能信息是指控制、調節、協調全社會生產的文化信息,廣義上講一切具有流動的單方向性的文化信息,都屬於此類信息。比如國家的法律法規,政府的政策法令,經濟宏觀決策等等[18]。它是一種重要的信息資源。它的獲取意味著知情權的獲取,為進一步做出反映和決策提供信息基礎。拿上面的例子來說,農民們知道了哪些費該繳,哪些不該繳,就會做出該繳什麼,不該繳什麼的決策,以維護自己的利益。

    由於我國的政治體制是集權型的,而權能信息的傳遞是單方面的,必須要經過多個環節(各級政府),並且信息通道狹窄。比如中央的政策往往是採用文件下發的形式,一級級地向下傳達。這就有很多問題了。在每個環節都存在類似“一夫當關,萬夫莫開”的狀況,只要在每一個環節做一點小手腳,比如說某一級政府將上級政府的決策改動一下,隱蔽一點,下一級政府再改動一點,到最後,這個政策就變樣了。有令不行,有法不依的另一個重要原因就是信息不對稱和監督成本太高。中央政府監督得了省一級政府,到市一級就弱了,到縣就基本管不了,到鄉鎮天曉得怎樣了。欺上瞞下能屢屢得逞就是由於權能信息通道關口一些追求自身利益的人控制了,好政策下不來,壞消息上不去。所以一個對農民有利而對一些官僚不利的政策連續過幾道關口,到頭來要麼“消失”了,要麼變樣了。再加上農民文化素質低,缺乏直接接受權能文化(如看報,上網查詢等)的能力,即使知道什麼政策,也只知道一個大概。農民負擔越減越重的政策失敗怪圈形成的重要原因之一就是獲取權能信息能力的極度缺乏。權能信息,尤其是一些有利於農民的政策、法令被大大小小的官僚壟斷,農民就只有受欺負的份了。

    ■ 制度歧視

    “當今中國社會中有哪些國民待遇最不平等?歧視性的城鄉兩種身份戶籍制度是中國國民之間的最大不平等。”[19]此言對極!戶籍制度像一堵無形的牆,將城鄉分割開來,它帶給農民的最惡劣的影響莫過於發展機會的狹窄。

    1“農民”身份先天性地低人一等。 “農民”二字只和“卑微”相聯結,世人就是這樣給農民定位的。因此,無論一個人幹什麼事,只要他(她)是一個農民,就免不了要受歧視。被排斥感由此而生。天然地處於“身份”劣勢的農民想出人頭地是非常困難的。

    2制度剝奪,“劫貧濟富”。回顧歷史,戶籍制度為主的一系列政策的最初目的是利用農業剩餘發展重工業和城市經濟。1952-1990年,我國農民通過“剪刀差”,為國家和城市提供了高達8708億元的資金,平均每年223億元[20]。嚴重削弱了農民自身的資本積累能力。當然由於種種原因可以容忍這一“剝奪”行為。但到了市場經濟的今天,這個制度依然在發揮著“劫貧濟富”的功能,就讓人難以容忍了!進入90年代,城鄉差距急劇拉大,本來已經相對貧困的農民還被“非法剝奪”,其資本積累的能力能有多大?

    3農民無法融入先進的社會生產力系統中。近幾年,雖然放寬了對農民流動的限制,因此“民工潮”得以出現。但是他們卻始終難以融入城市的發展系統,尤其是先進生產力系統中去。這固然有農民文化水平低等他們自身的因素,但不可否認農民有大量的發展機會被戶籍制度限制了。我們可以看一則材料:從1996起北京市勞動局每年發出通告,公布限制的行業和工種。從1996的15個增加到1997年的34個,到1998的36個,2000年的103個[21]。被擋在這些行業和工種之外的主要對象就是農民。職業選擇集的縮小,極大地影響農民的發展機會。有一點應注意:在現有戶籍制度背景下,農民工的流動是分散的、無序的,處於一種“漂泊”的狀態。農民“在輸入地是招之即來揮之即去,沒有被當地管理部門納入現代化生產者的訓練範圍”,因而“他們很難轉化為訓練有素、有技術、具有現代化觀念的工人隊伍”[22]。試想農民工面對的工作多是體力活,收入低不用說,最重要的是他們因此而失去了分享現代化發展成果(先進的文化、信息、技術、方法等)的機會,難以融入先進的生產力系統,意味著農民的“素質”永遠也提不高!他們也只能充當“邊緣人”的角色了。其實農民的創造力和吃苦耐勞的精神完全有可能在現代化發展過程重發揮更大的作用。只是由於一堵牆,他們中的優秀分子就被扼殺了。

    ■ 集團博弈的失敗者

    戶籍制度的背後其實是一種利益關係。這個不合理制度取消與否取決於它所涉及到的兩個利益集團之間的博弈結果。這兩個利益集團一個是農民群體;另一個是城市居民,“包括人數廣泛的工商企業家、企業員工、政府官員、專家學者等”[23]。我們知道城鄉差別的受益者是城市居民,受害者是農民。城市居民為了維護他們的工作崗位、福利、安全等既得利益,是傾向於不讓農民進城的。但農民是傾向於進城的。這兩個集團的力量對比如何呢?

    力量的強弱並不取卻決於絕對人數的多少,而是取決於利益集團的整體力量。城市居民雖然相對於農民是少數,但由於他們居住相對集中、易於聯絡、信息收集的渠道廣泛、搭便車行為易被察覺,容易形成集體行動;何況他們還有這樣那樣的團體組織,所以“改革以來發生在政治生活中的一個重要變化就是,城市居民對於自身利益的表達和尋求動力加強了,渠道拓寬了,更容易被反映在政策之中”[24]。相反“在我國農村,由於人口眾多,居住分散、交通通訊手段不發達,因此各地農民之間相互依賴性差,難以克服搭便車問題”[25],難以形成集體行動,整體動員力量自然不大,所以才有“農民不善合”一說。再加上他們的經濟、政治和社會地位低下,缺乏代表農民利益的組織,盡管他們是“工人階級的同盟軍”,卻依然是失敗者。

    分析至此,主要的部分已經敘述完了,當然影響農民發展的因素並不只我們提及的幾個,不過我們所分析的是其中最重要的。需要說明的是:1上面所列舉的幾個影響農民發展的因素,總體上我們只是分析了它們作為相對於農民個體的環境之意義上的那些方面。勾勒了一幅限制、束縛農民發展的有關制度、體制、政策等聯結在一起組成的簡明的圖畫。至於農民自身的狀況,如文化低,思想保守、目光狹隘等,.很少或是基本沒有談。因為我們認為通過農民的發展環境的改善,如受教育機會的拓展,平等國民待遇的實現等,他們自身的弱勢地位是會改變的。因此我們將討論的重點放在農民的發展環境上。2構成農民的發展環境的諸因素的相關性是相當大的。比如說農民收入低,就會影響他及其子女受教育的程度;知識貧困又影響他收入能力;制度壁壘限制了他們的發展機會,發展的機會的缺乏又會影響他們獲取“素質”的能力,增加收入的能力等等。因此雖然我們在形式上是分開討論幾個因素的,但事實上它們是作為一個有機整體而存在的。任何一個因素的變動都會直接或間接影響到其它的因素。從這個意義上說,要回答“農民會不會被拋棄”的問題,不僅要一個一個因素的分析,還要從總體上考察。

    ■ 結語

    我們看到,在所注意到的幾個方面確實存在著許許多多的障礙束縛著農民的發展。那麼是不是說他們就一定會被拋棄呢?實事求是地講,已經有一部分農民被拋棄了。問題在於會不會發生農民群體繼續被拋棄的事。如果這樣的事發生了,現在的回答就是:他們一定會被拋棄;如果沒有發生,回答就是:不會。未來是不確定的不可測的。但部分地,我們可以肯定的是:如果現在的農民的發展環境不改善的話,他們必定被拋棄,這是毫無疑問的。因此,在這種情況下,我們的觀點是悲觀的。如果農民的發展環境能得到充分的改善,比如石家莊的戶籍制度改革等,農民也許不會被拋棄。這就是我們得出的最終結論。


    註釋:

    [1]秦星:《增加農民收入問題討論綜述》,新華文摘,2001(8)。

    [2]王建:《如何認識當前的“三農”問題》,中國宏觀經濟信息網 ,2001年07月25日。

    [3]經濟展望,2001(8),引用趙人偉教授的觀點。

    [4]王金洪:《改革以來我國農業政策變動與農民利益的相關分析》,開放時代,2001(7)。

    [5]秦暉:《費稅改革;歷史的經驗和現實的選擇》,中國改革,2001(10)。

    [6]李昌平:農村費改稅面臨的4大挑戰,同上。

    [7]張曉山,崔志紅:《“三農”問題根在扭曲的國民收入分配格局》,中國改革,2001(8)。

    [8]溫鐵軍:《三農問題的認識誤區》,中國宏觀經濟信息網, 2001年07月31日

    [9]胡鞍綱,李春波:《新世紀的新貧困:知識貧困》,中國社會科學,2001(3)。

    [10]我的家鄉就是這樣搞的。

    [11]顧海兵:《中國高考制度批判:計劃經濟式的考試可休矣!》中國改革,2001(10)。

    [12]杜潤生:《給農民國民待遇》,中國改革,2001(10)。

    [13]緯恩:《教育經費:應投向和方?》中國改革,2001(10)。作者估計1998年除農業稅外的農民負擔為1612億元。我們據此推算人均負擔約為200元。這是保守的估計,1999年肯定不止200元。

    [14]陳錫文:《農民增收:“九五”留給“十五”的最大課題》,前線,2001(4)。他認為目前農民純收入中,用於生產性支出一般佔30-40%。我們取30%。

    [15]據我家,及其我們對來自河北、湖北、四川、貴州、江西等一些省份的大學生的調查。

    [16]徐斐:《高校高收費:福耶,禍耶----高等教育收費政策的實證分析》,社會2001(7)。

    [17]呂紹青,張守禮:《城鄉差別下的流動兒童教育,戰略與管理》,2001(4)。

    [18]黎鳴(主編):《中國的危機》,北京:改革出版社,1998。

    [19]仲大軍:《中國社會內部的巨大衝突----戶籍分別》,載於黎鳴主編:《中國的危機》,北京:改革出版社,1998

    [20]李佐軍:《中國的根本問題:九億農民何處去》,北京:中國發展出版社,2000。

    [21][24]蔡□:《為什麼城市持續歧視外地民工?》經濟學消息報,2000年6月23日。

    [22]姚國宏:《漂泊的命運》,讀書,20001(1)。

    [23][25]駱峰:《中國農民需要自己的集體行動》,經濟學消息報,2000年7月6日。

    ──轉自《新世紀》

    (http://www.dajiyuan.com)

    11/18/2001 9:37:56 AM

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    SELECTED ARTICLES IN CHINESE:

     
    The Immiseration Growth Trade Disrupted by President Trump & Bursting of the Communist China's Real Estate Bubble
     
    Communist China's immiseration trade, at a cost of enslaving one billion peasants and coolies and polluting the nation's land, water and air, has carried along for decades now, with the unsustainable growth backfiring before its due demise as a result of President Trump's preemptive strike, i.e., the Sino-U.S. trade war, which triggered communist China's counter-retaliation measures and subsequent breakup of a tacit bonding between the multinational corporations and banksters of the West and the oligarchs of communist China, a relationship the communists initially described as a marriage in a silly allegory that painted communist China as a feminine (like a concubine) subservient to the U.S. as a master. What this author could not bear will be widespread pollution-related cancer deaths that befell to the people living around the Taihu (thunder god) Lake, which is where this author's great grandfather's lakeside home village and tomb were, that is known as Shihu [stony lake] and Huangtan [yellow flatland] in history and penned to a poem by Fan Chengda who was responsible for negotiating with the Jurchens to retrieve Soong Emperor Qinzong's coffin from the Amur area in the 13th century.
     
    Jagdish Bhagwati's immiseration vindicated an economic thesis that the more a country exports to another trade partner, the worse off the terms of trade would be. From the economics perspective, the immiseration trade would have corrected itself through Adam Smith's Invisible Hand and its adjustment by the markets. Unfortunately, Communist China's immiseration growth was fatally built on a ruinous percolation logic similar to the Mongols' unbacked fiat: the communists' sweatshops manufactured products at the below-market or no cost for export to the West, using the slave labor like the Uygurs in the concentration camps of Xinjiang, for example; the communists then forced the exporters to convert the "foreign exchange" trade gain into the worthless RMB, i.e., "people's dollars" that were printed on the astronomical scale, which was similar to the Russian rubles that could not be freely bought and sold; for absorbing the over-printed paper currency, the communists conducted the violent land acquisition and enclosure movements, reaped enormous profit in the land sale, and sold the real estate bubble to the city "accomplice" citizens who once in a life time enjoyed a flash-in-the-pan decent life of luxury travel abroad and the concept of wealth management of the West; and the communists, in addition to squandering the money on the Belt and Road projects or Confucius academies, laundered the "foreign exchange" to the banks in H.K., the U.S., Canada, Europe, Australia, and the Caribbeans, escaping the hell they created in the expectation that the billion slaves one day would rise up and smash the communist apparatus.
     
    When the trade decreased or stopped, partly due to President Trump's trade war and partly due to the rising labor cost which was triggered by the inflation coupled with the decreased labor force ensuing from decades of the barbaric policy of forced abortions, the communists could no longer print the worthless RMB paper money to peg with the foreign exchange for running the economic engine, which then led to the bursting of the bubble and collapse of its financial system, with the banks and ATM machines running out of money. This then forced the regime to take the last resort to switch to a closed-door policy to slow down the paper currency usage on the pretext of Coronavirus, a double-edge weapon also used to exercise militarized control of the population for an opportune invasion of Taiwan in synchronization with the Trojan horse planted on the island. (During the three-year lockdown, the communists, who ordered the chaining of kitchen knives and ID'ed ownership of kitchen knives, implemented the forced lockdown via barbed wire fences at the border, and segeration iron or plastic fences on the streets, lanes and in the neighborhoods, which was taken to be rehersal for implementing the Cultural Revolution 2.0.)
     
    In today's communist China, with a widely rumored scheme of Operation Sinking Ship for decades, the totalitarian regime recently began to prep the people for an outcome of isolation from the international community and embracing of an Orwellian rule similar to the Kim dynasty of North Korea. The unfolding economic collapse of communist China shows the world that communist China is a castle built with sand and on the sand of unsustainable immiserated trades used for funding the proportionally-blown real estate bubbles, i.e., what the Japanese called by suna no utsuwa. (The above passages were excerpted from the Afterword of From the Khitans to the Jurchens & Mongols: A History of Barbarians in Triangle Wars and Quartet Conflicts (The Barbarians' Tetralogy - Book III: Laments for the Middle Land's Sinking))

     


     


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    Jeanne d'Arc of China:
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    Tribute of Yu Heavenly Questions Zhou King Mu's Travels Classic of Mountains and Seas
     
    The Bamboo Annals
    The Bamboo Annals
    From the Khitans to the Jurchens & Mongols: A History of Barbarians in Triangle Wars and Quartet Conflicts (天譴四部曲之三:從契丹到女真和蒙古 - 中原陸沉之殤)
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    China's conscience: Peng Zaizhou (Peng Lifa)'s crusading call against China's proditor
    Wang Bingzhang Gao Zhisheng Wang Quanzhang Jiang Tianyong Xu Zhiyong Huang Qi Shi Tao Yu Wensheng
    Peng Zaizhou (Peng Lifa)'s crusading call against China's imbecelic proditor and dictator: 不要核酸要吃饭, 不要封控要自由; 不要领袖要选票, 不要谎言要尊严; 不要文革要改革, 不做奴才做公民. Peng Zaizhou's
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    The objectives of this webmaster's writings would be i) to re-ignite the patriotic passion of the ethnic Chinese overseas; ii) to rectify the modern Chinese history to its original truth; and iii) to expound the Chinese tradition, humanity, culture and legacy to the world community. Significance of the historical work on this website could probably be made into a parallel to the cognizance of the Chinese revolutionary forerunners of the 1890s: After 250 years of the Manchu forgery and repression, the revolutionaries in the late 19th century re-discovered the Manchu slaughters and literary inquisition against the ethnic-Han Chinese via books like "Three Rounds Of Slaughter At Jiading In 1645", "Ten Day Massacre At Yangzhou" and Jiang Lianqi's "Dong Hua Lu" [i.e., "The Lineage Extermination Against Luu Liuliang's Family"]. Revolutionary forerunner Zhang Taiyan (Zhang Binglin), a staunch anti-Manchu revolutionary scholar, invoked Xin Shi (The History [Book] of Heart, a book written by Soong loyalist Zheng Sixiao who sank it in a tin-iron box into a well in the late 13th century A.D., and rediscovered about three and half centuries later), for rallying the nationalist movements against the Manchu rule. Additionally, revolutionaries in Sichuan often invoked 17-year-old prodigy-martyr Xia Wanchun's Xia Jiemin [Quan-]Ji (Complete anthology of Xia Wanchun's poems and prose) for taking heart of grace in the uprisings against the Manchus. This webmaster intends to make the contents of this website into the Prometheus fire, lightening up the fuzzy part of China's history. It is this webmaster's hope that some future generation of the Chinese patriots, including the to-be-awoken sons and grandsons of arch-thief Chinese Communist rulers [who had sought material pursuits in the West], after reflecting on the history of China, would return to China to do something for the good of the country. This webmaster's question for the sons of China: Are you to wear the communist pigtails for 267 years? And don't forget that your being born in the U.S. and the overseas or your parents and grandparents' being granted permanent residency by the U.S. and European countries could be ascribed to the sacrifice of martyrs on the Tian-an-men Square and the Peking city in 1989. (If you were the Chi-com hitting this site from the Bank of China New York branch or from the party academy in Peking, spend some time reading here to cleanse your brain-washed mind.)

    Beliefs Are Tested in Saga Of Sacrifice and Betrayal

    REAL STORY: A Study Group Is Crushed in China's Grip
    Beliefs Are Tested in Saga Of Sacrifice and Betrayal
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    China The Beautiful


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    Republican China in Blog Format
    Republican China in Blog Format
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    The destiny of Russian tyranny, ... was to expand into Asia - and eventually to break in two, there, upon its own conquests.
    The destiny of Russian tyranny, ... was to expand into Asia - and eventually to break in two, there, upon its own conquests.
    Heed the sons & ministers' agony and sorrow of our ancestors who died or lived through the Mongol, Manchu and Soviet-Chicom conquest and the Yongjia, Jingkang and Jiashen cataclysms !
    *** Translation, Tradducion, Ubersetzung , Chinese ***